Groundhog Day is nearly upon us, and some of you might be asking, “why are we consulting a groundhog about the weather?”
Provided you already know the cultural origins of the holiday - and if you don’t, you can read all about it here - what you’re really asking is: how accurate could Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions possibly be?
It’s true that, by some metrics, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions aren’t the most accurate out there. An often-quoted metric is that he’s right about 39 percent of the time.
The National Centers for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association gave Phil an accuracy rating of 40 percent over the past 10 years in 2021.
“In 2021, Phil forecast a “long winter” when he saw his shadow and predicted an additional six weeks of wintry temperatures,” the website reads. “In fact, the contiguous United States saw below average temperatures in February and above average temperatures in March of last year. Phil was 50/50 on his forecast.”
The website goes on to admit that “Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country, especially one with such varied regional climates as the United States, isn’t easy!” So let’s get a bit more specific: how accurate is Phil when it comes to predicting the weather in his own region - the Northeast of the United States?
FiveThirtyEight.com did some of their own number-crunching, and broke down Phil’s predictions, as well as several of his rivals in Groundhog Day-style prognostication.
On their website, they looked at the stats from 1994 through 2021, and the results for Phil vary pretty wildly by region. On average, it looks like he was right about 39 percent of the time, including for the Northeast. But in some regions, like the South, his average is as high as 50 percent.
But then again, what do we mean by “early spring?” What are the hard numbers to say whether or not Phil’s yes or no is “correct”?
“In fairness to Phil and his supposedly sterling record, evaluating these predictions is tricky,” FiveThirtyEight.com said. “What constitutes an early spring? Should a month with an average temperature 2 degrees higher than the historical average count as one? What about 5 degrees? What if all the snow melts and it’s warm and sunny for a week in February, but then March comes in like a lion?”
The website goes on to admit that both they and NOAA have an “early spring bias” in their numbers - if even one month has an above-average temperature for the year, that counts as an early spring in their eyes.
“Though a half-degree above average is hardly a delightfully early eruption of spring by most standards, it qualifies by our metric,” their website said.
Keeping that in mind, it’s easy to see why some of Phil’s rivals had far better marks if they also were biased towards making more frequent “early spring” predictions.
However, if you make the definition of an early spring a bit more stringent - say, increasing it to a five-degree above-average temperature for February or March, then Phil gets a big boost.
“Meanwhile, applying that same threshold to Phil’s predictions (from 1994 to 2021) actually improves his accuracy to 50 percent in his home region and 68 percent in the Northwest, South and Southeast,” they said.
Jumping from 39 percent to 68 percent is pretty dramatic - and 68 percent accuracy is a fair bit better than a coin toss. Just don’t go using this info to make bets on Phil’s predictions, because that’s not legal in Pennsylvania.
READ MORE: Groundhog Day betting odds: What are the chances that Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow?
For more detailed breakdowns of Phil’s accuracy over the past 20 years, check out the NOAA website here or the FiveThirtyEight study here.
And don’t miss out on these other Groundhog Day stories here:
- Gov. Shapiro to join Punxsutawney Phil for Groundhog Day celebrations
- How to watch the Groundhog Day reveal if you can’t be in Punxsutawney
- Groundhog Day events outside of Punxsutawney: Celebrate with these rodent weather forecasters
- Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil to be inducted into Meteorologist Hall of Fame
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FAQs
Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club show Phil has predicted 108 continued winters and only 21 early springs as of 2024. According to the Stormfax Almanac, that works out to a 39% accuracy rate for Phil. In the near term, the groundhog's accuracy rate is slightly worse.
How accurate has Punxsutawney Phil been over the years? ›
From 1969 on, Phil's overall accuracy rate is about 36%. The groundhog's powers of prognostication are slightly better when he doesn't cast a shadow, though.
Are Punxsutawney Phil's predictions correct? ›
Phil's accuracy rate over the time period was 36%. Overall, the Stormfax Almanac says, Phil has only been right 39% of the time going back to his first recorded prediction in 1887.
What groundhog has the highest accuracy rate on Groundhog Day? ›
Georgia groundhog General Beauregard Lee
And he's got a better forecasting record than Phil. According to an analysis done by 538, Beau is accurate about how things will play out in the Southeast about 70% of the time, while Phil has been about 40% accurate for his home region since 1994.
Is Punxsutawney Phil the same groundhog every year? ›
According to the club, there has been only one Punxsutawney Phil since 1886. He gets his longevity from drinking the “elixir of life,” a secret recipe, according to the club. He reportedly takes one sip every summer at the Groundhog Picnic and it magically gives him seven more years of life.
How often has Punxsutawney Phil been right in the last 10 years? ›
Phil's track record in a recent 10-year span has kept up with that historical trend, with the groundhog being right just 40% of the time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information.
How old is Phil the groundhog in 2024? ›
How old is Phil the Groundhog? According to the club that cares for him, Phil has been making predictions since 1886, which would make him 138.
Is Groundhog Day cancelled in 2024? ›
ORIGINAL: 1/31/2024, 11:36 a.m.
(WBOY) — West Virginia's annual Groundhog Day event in French Creek will not be held this year, the West Virginia Wildlife Center confirmed to 12 News Wednesday. French Creek Freddie. Credit: West Virginia Division of Natural Resources.
What was Groundhog Day's prediction in 2024? ›
Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow in a ceremony Friday morning at Gobbler's Knob in Pennsylvania. Per tradition, that means he's predicting an early spring.
Will groundhog see his shadow in 2024? ›
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (CBS) -- Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow on Groundhog Day 2024, meaning an early spring is on the way. Like most Feb. 2s in the past 137 years, crowds gathered at Gobbler's Knob to hear Punxsutawney Phil make his prediction.
According to his supporters, Buckeye Chuck has a 75% success rate in predicting the weather, while the most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, is right about 40% of the time, according to The Marion Star.
Which groundhog is more accurate, Phil or Chuck? ›
Chuck is more accurate than Phil
Since 1992, Staten Island Chuck has been correct in his predictions 68% of the time. In that same time period, Punxsutawney Phil has made the right call just 42% of the time.
How many Punxsutawney Phil's have there actually been? ›
How many "Phils" have there been over the years? There has only been one Punxsutawney Phil. He has been making predictions since 1886! Punxsutawney Phil gets his longevity from drinking the "elixir of life," a secret recipe.
How many years do groundhogs live? ›
Lifespan: In the wild, groundhogs can live up to six years with two or three being average. In captivity, groundhogs reportedly live up to 14 years. Breeding: Groundhogs tend to be solitary except in the spring when a litter of four to six young are born.
Does Punxsutawney Phil have a wife? ›
Spring has sprung, and so, too, has the family of the United States's most famous groundhog. Punxsutawney Phil and his wife, Phyllis, are now officially parents.
Who is the wife of Punxsutawney Phil? ›
Punxsutawney Phil, the spring-predicting groundhog, and wife Phyllis are parents of 2 babies. Now we know what Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog who predicts whether an early spring will arrive each Feb. 2, does on the other 364 days.
Has there ever been a year the groundhog didn't see his shadow? ›
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. -- Punxsutawney Phil has made his prediction for 2024 Groundhog Day. The honorary groundhog did not see his shadow Friday morning, predicting that there will be an early spring. The day marks the 21st time Phil has not seen his shadow during the 138-year-old tradition.
Is Punxsutawney Phil 137 years old? ›
It's been the same Punxsutawney Phil for all 137 years of the tradition, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. That's over 15 times longer than the upper end of a groundhog's typical lifespan. That's an old groundhog.
How many groundhogs predict the weather? ›
Punxsutawney Phil isn't the only famous groundhog: At least 6 other states have their own weather prognosticators. As Phil has grown in popularity over the years, so too has the sage advice of Freddie, Jimmy and Chuck - other groundhogs who have started popping up with their own predictions.
