What is Groundhog Day and how often is the groundhog right? (2024)

What is Groundhog Day and how often is the groundhog right? (1)

Who’s 131 years old, draws crowds of 40,000, infallibly predicts the weather, and is surrounded by a fan club who dress in top hats and tuxedos?

The answer is, of course, Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog from the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. And yes, all of the above are true (depending on who you ask).

The tradition of Groundhog Day goes all the way back to 1887. It was first reported by the Punxsutawney Spirit, a local newspaper. The festival celebrates the emergence of a certain groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, from his burrow.

If the groundhog sees his shadow, he has predicted six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow he has predicted an early spring.

However, the custom is actually a lot older than Phil.

Groundhog Day dates back to the Germanic tradition of Dachstag or ‘Badger Day’. This was a folkloric tradition which resembles Groundhog Day almost exactly, with the exception of involving a badger rather than a groundhog.

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Who is Punxsutawney Phil?

What is Groundhog Day and how often is the groundhog right? (5)

Punxsutawney Phil is an ageless groundhog who is, according to local legend, has presided over every Groundhog Day. He has survived from the late 19th to the early 21st Century by consuming ‘groundhog punch’ or ‘the elixir of life’. Phil drinks these at the annual Groundhog Picnic which is celebrated in the fall.

Phil’s long life is a real feat considering, in the wild, a groundhog only tends to live for five to seven years.

Any other groundhog who claims to be able to predict the weather is decried as an ‘impostor’.

When he isn’t celebrating his special day, Punxsutawney Phil lives in the town library. He is cared for by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club Inner Circle. These are an elite group of Punxsutawnians who can be identified by their dress code: top hats and tuxedos.

Punxsutawney Phil spends Groundhog Day in a special home on Gobbler’s Knob. This is located in a rural area around two miles to the south-east of Punxsutawney.

He is also a major character inGroundhog Daythe 1993 film, and its Broadway musical adaption.

What is Groundhog Day?

Of all the traditions in America, few are quite as unique as Groundhog Day.

The ceremony begins well before the sunrise on 2nd February each year. Punxsutawney Phil is brought to his part-time home at Gobbler’s Knob and placed inside.

A huge crowd of 40,000 ‘phaithful phollowers’ (eight times the entire population of Punxsutawney on a regular day) draws in to see the groundhog. Rudely awakened by the noise of the crowd, Punxsutawney Phil leaves his burrow, with the help of the Inner Circle, makes his way to the top of the tree stump.

At the top of the tree stump, Phil reveals whether he has seen his shadow on his journey. He does so by conversing with the president of the Inner Circle in ‘groundhogese’. The president is able to converse with Phil due to owning an acacia wooden cane which confers the ability upon him. Phil directs the president to a pre-prepared scroll announcing either an early spring or a long winter.

How often is the groundhog correct?

Punxsutawney Phil is absolutely infallible. He has never, in his 131-year history, ever been wrong about whether or not winter will continue. However, some of the predictions about the winter made on Groundhog Day have been incorrect.

In 130 predictions, Phil has predicted a long winter 103 times and an early spring 18 times. Sadly, there are no records for the other occasions.

According to Stormfax, a local weather service, as of 2016, the predictions have been correct just over 39 percent of the time.

So what gives? Well, it turns out the president of the Inner Circle is to blame. Misinterpretation of Punxsutawney Phil is possible due to the president’s human error in translating the message.

While Punxsutawney Phil is undoubtedly irked by this failure on the president’s part, in 2013 it saved his life. In that year,aButler County, Ohioprosecutor named Michael Gmoser sent an email issuing an indictment calling for the death penalty for Punxsutawney Phil. This was for“misrepresentation of early spring, an Unclassified Felony, and against the peace and dignity of the State Of Ohio”. On that day, temperatures were near a record low and remained so for days.

Thankfully, the prosecutor pardoned Phil due to the president taking the blame for the mistake.

What is Groundhog Day and how often is the groundhog right? (6)

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What is Groundhog Day and how often is the groundhog right? (2024)

FAQs

How often are groundhogs right? ›

Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club show Phil has predicted 108 continued winters and only 21 early springs as of 2024. According to the Stormfax Almanac, that works out to a 39% accuracy rate for Phil. In the near term, the groundhog's accuracy rate is slightly worse.

What does Groundhog Day mean? ›

It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow, it will retreat to its den and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow, spring will arrive early. In 2024, an early spring was predicted.

How many times has the groundhog predicted the weather correctly? ›

From 1969 on, Phil's overall accuracy rate is about 36%. The groundhog's powers of prognostication are slightly better when he doesn't cast a shadow, though. "When Phil predicted a short winter, he was much more likely to be right," Roche previously told Live Science.

How accurate is the groundhog's Day? ›

Phil's accuracy rate over the time period was 36%. Overall, the Stormfax Almanac says, Phil has only been right 39% of the time going back to his first recorded prediction in 1887.

How many years do groundhogs live? ›

Lifespan: In the wild, groundhogs can live up to six years with two or three being average. In captivity, groundhogs reportedly live up to 14 years. Breeding: Groundhogs tend to be solitary except in the spring when a litter of four to six young are born.

How many times does groundhogs Day repeat? ›

WhatCulture.com calculated just how long Phil Connors spent in limbo back in 2013 to mark the film's 20th anniversary. Amazingly, the time equates to repeating the same day a torturous 12,395 times.

Are groundhogs aggressive? ›

Most people don't know they are sharing their yards with them until the spring and summer when they come out of their burrows and begin foraging for food. Groundhogs are generally not aggressive and scare fairly easily. Using a range of deterrents will keep them from areas you don't want them around.

What did the groundhog say 2024? ›

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. -- Punxsutawney Phil has made his prediction for 2024 Groundhog Day. The honorary groundhog did not see his shadow Friday morning, predicting that there will be an early spring. The day marks the 21st time Phil has not seen his shadow during the 138-year-old tradition.

How many groundhogs are there? ›

There are 80 weather-forecasting prognosticators in Canada or the USA who made predictions in 2024 — including 46 'alternative' groundhogs. Use the Groundhog Map to locate your fave prognosticator.

How often is Phil correct? ›

NOAA says Phil's predictions have been accurate 39% of the time since 1886 and over the last ten years his predictions are up to a 40% accuracy rating.

How old is Phil the groundhog 2024? ›

How old is Phil the Groundhog? According to the club that cares for him, Phil has been making predictions since 1886, which would make him 138. The site also says Punxsutawney Phil gets "longevity from drinking the elixir of life, a secret recipe." Most groundhogs live up to 14 years.

Does Punxsutawney Phil have a wife? ›

The Pennsylvania group that handles Phil, and his groundhog wife, Phyllis, says the couple have become parents. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said in a Facebook post Wednesday that Phyllis recently gave birth to two healthy babies.

What did Phil predict for 2024? ›

Is an early spring on the way? New York City's Staten Island Chuck and other prognosticating groundhogs agreed with Punxsutawney Phil's prediction. Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow in a ceremony Friday morning at Gobbler's Knob in Pennsylvania. Per tradition, that means he's predicting an early spring.

Can you trust Groundhog Day? ›

Although the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club claims that the groundhog is "accurate 100% of the time", data would prove otherwise. Phil has a rough track record of only predicting the weather correctly 39% of the time since records began.

Do we get 6 more weeks of winter 2024? ›

Phil did not see his shadow on Friday, ending a three-year streak of predicting six more weeks of winter.

Is the groundhogs prediction always right? ›

In fact, as a meteorologist from the Weather Underground told Live Science, from 1969 onwards, his accuracy has dropped from 39 percent to 36 percent. That groundhogs are lousy at predicting the weather is one of 16 groundhog facts everyone should know.

Are groundhogs always right in their predictions? ›

See the most up-to-date forecast here! Of those 127 predictions, Phil only has 30-40% accuracy rate. And since 2014, that rate is down to 30%, that's 3 out of the past 10 years that he's been correct. This year, Punxsutawney Phil didn't see his shadow and thus predicted an early spring.

Do groundhogs come back to the same place every year? ›

Even though groundhogs favor forested areas, they are very adaptable and will keep coming back to places where they are able to find plenty of food and a suitable shelter. Groundhogs will readily come into your yard searching for food and a safe place to burrow.

How many groundhogs usually live together? ›

Like many animals, groundhogs are typically solitary, only coming together to mate. They do have a rather unusual greeting, however, in those rare times when they meet each other.

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